Original photo by REUTERS/ Alamy Stock Photo
Punxsutawney Phil — the star of Groundhog Day — has a big job. Every February 2, the furry critter is responsible for encouraging (or dashing) our dreams of an early end to winter. However, it seems that basing our meteorological forecasts on a den-dwelling mammal’s shadow may not be the wisest bet. By some estimates, Phil’s forecasts have had a mere 39% accuracy rate since they began in 1887 (although data from some early years is missing). In recent years, the groundhog’s predictions have been about as accurate as a coin toss; according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil was spot-on 50% of the time between 2011 and 2020.
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It's a factGroundhogs are one of the largest members of the Sciuridae family, which includes squirrels, chipmunks, marmots, prairie dogs, and more. All of these rodents are known for digging abilities, and groundhogs are no exception, often creating complex burrows with multiple rooms and paths.
Of course, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club — the group responsible for Phil’s care and the official Groundhog Day ceremony — state that Phil is always correct. The club maintains that Phil’s handlers are to blame for any inaccuracies, suggesting that in those instances they likely misinterpreted the “groundhogese” he speaks and inaccurately relayed his message.
The tradition of watching groundhogs search for their shadow as a means of winter forecasting came to the U.S. from German immigrants, who brought with them celebrations of Candlemas Day. Observed on February 2, the holiday commemorates when the Virgin Mary went to Jerusalem’s holy temple to be purified 40 days after Jesus’ birth. Celebrants of old noted that a sunny holiday likely indicated snow to come in late spring. The original Germanic tradition required observing a badger or hedgehog, but immigrants found that groundhogs (native to North America) were a good enough substitute, saddling the rotund rodents with the job of predicting spring’s arrival — a tradition that’s drawn thousands of onlookers to Punxsutawney each February for more than 130 years.
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Punxsutawney Phil’s groundhog companion is named ______.
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Punxsutawney Phil’s groundhog companion is named Phyllis.
Bill Murray’s character in "Groundhog Day" relives the same day for three decades.
The 1993 film Groundhog Day centers on a surly newscaster (played by comedian Bill Murray), forced to repeat February 2 over and over until he learns a lesson in humility. While the screenplay never confirms how long it takes for Murray’s character to break the cycle, some reviewers estimate the loop occurs 12,395 times — the equivalent of 33 years and 350 days. (Internet lore suggests filmmakers had originally planned for the cycle to last 10,000 years, though that claim is disputed by screenwriter Danny Rubin.) On set, Murray may have had his own bit of déjá vu, reportedly being bitten by his groundhog co-star (named Scooter) two times despite wearing protective gloves.
Nicole Garner Meeker is a writer and editor based in St. Louis. Her history, nature, and food stories have also appeared at Mental Floss and Better Report.
